A Run of Bad Luck

     Demotivators courtesy photobucket.com

     President Obama took some chances this past week to stem what has been a progressive crumbling of support for his chances for re-election in 2012.  He embarked on a bus tour through the midwest to mingle with the people and try to stem the tide of bad karma. At one of the stops he stated:

“We had reversed the recession, avoided a depression, got the economy moving again. But over the last six months we’ve had a run of bad luck.”

     Putting aside the President’s rather than generous opinion of his role in “reversing the recession and avoiding a depression”, the line that has seized the attention of commentators has been President Obama’s comment regarding the defining of his fate by “bad luck”.  Charles Krauthammer dissects the President’s record and responses to the economic conditions he was presented with upon election and sees the outcome more as bad excuses rather than bad luck. The sympathetic good vibes that surrounded this President with ascension to the presidency at a difficult time have dissolved with the recognition of his inflexible and ideological instincts in favor of a command economy.  Wielding a top down stimulus approach, the President has poured over 4 trillion dollars of deficit spending, selective industry protections and investments formed on ideology not productivity, and overbearing regulation in the space of three short years, and the result has been “bad luck” – persistent unemployment at over 9% (twice his predecessor), sluggish economic indicators despite the cheapest credit available in history, and a world wide sense of a second economic contraction. 

     It is an unfortunate reality of modern politics that the last two presidents “of the people”, Presidents’ Clinton and Obama, have both been among our most narcissistic and self absorbed personalities.  In President Clinton’s case, his enormous political skills saved him from his worst traits of assuming he was always the smartest one in the fight and was always right.  He could recognize when he had a “two fisted death grip on a loser” and adjust his bombastic tendencies accordingly, moving away from strangulating universal health care and  permanent welfare as a right, and working with the congress to achieve welfare reform.   He was rewarded with a second term, despite his visible personal foibles.  President Obama has no such selective antenna, no personal work experience to balance his “smartest man in the room” self absorption.  He continues to plow ahead with policies that have come up flatter than a pancake in responding to the economic stagnation. Classic for narcissism, both presidents have been quoted as saying that, “no president has ever faced more difficult circumstances”, but in President Obama’s case, the lack of acknowledging failure has taken the natural response of a capitalist economy to retrench and recover out of play, and cemented those “difficult circumstances”.   There is every indication that because he is sure he knows better, he is going to push ahead to create the ideal world he has envisioned for us, whether we like it or not, and will struggle to tell the man he sees in the mirror to recognize the answer lies in gettting out of the way.

      Bad luck has its way of forming as a response to bad policy.  Industries that are not “chosen” are unlikely to risk growth when such growth is sure to be punished.  Enemies that are told no longer to fear American reactions to their bad behavior are likely to behave badly.  Friends who have been told they can no longer count on America are likely to look to others for friendship.  Countries that recognize that your word is no longer your bond are unlikely to have the faith to invest in your future.  Your countrymen who have seen your disdain for their hard work, incentive, and risk taking are unlikely to see you as their standard-bearer.

     It comes down to the fundamental principle of time immemorial.  In problem solving, doing what doesn’t work and hasn’t worked and will never work, is unlikely to work. Mr. President,  what it comes down to is – in this life, you make your own luck.

Pawlenty Out, Perry In

    

     Running for President of the United States takes a lot of things. It takes a thick skin. It takes a pretty big ego. But more than anything it takes a lot of money. A lot. The pointed juxtaposition of ego and money came to the surface in the Republican field of candidates this weekend with the announcement of former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty that he was dropping out of the race for President and that current Governor Rick Perry of Texas was getting in.
      The tired fact of American politics is that a candidacy for President can end before there has been a single registered vote determining the candidate’s value. Pawlenty dropped out 15 months before the actual election for the Presidency after losing the “straw vote” in Ames, Iowa this weekend. Former winners of this sage event have included Pat Robertson and Phil Gramm. Other than the true political junkie like me, nobody remembers Pat Robertson and Phil Gramm because the country as a whole does not measure the content of the character of the nation’s future president on an informal poll in the Hawkeye state over a year before the real election. It may turn out that nobody will remember Michelle Bachmann, the winner of this year’s straw poll. What was clear to Pawlenty that there are two things needed to become President, outsized ego and outsized access to money, and both he was woefully short on. The money he had, he spent on some very expensive television commercials prior to the poll that tried to nationalize the Pawlenty persona, but he was smaller than his commercials, unable to stimulate loyalty or passion in the state adjacent to Minnesota, whereas Bachmann his fellow Minnesotan could. Finishing third, Pawlenty knew the donor money would rapidly dry up and would soon compete with his ego for inadequacy for the challenge. It appears the country has vetted Pawlenty, a good man and a good governor with governing talent, as not big enough for the bigger job.
     That brings us to Rick Perry. That wooshing sound Tim Pawlenty’s money coffers heard this week was the sound of money donors rushing to underwrite the governor of Texas. Rick Perry brings outsized Texas ego and big time financial resources to the presidential mix and has immediately positioned himself as the purer conservative answer to Mitt Romney, the establishment candidate and front runner.  Perry brings the Texas success story of booming economy and jobs creation to a country starving for both, but it is unclear as to whether there is sufficient trust out there to elect another Texan with an outsized ego and a cowboy accent to the position of chief executive of the country.

     Pawlenty staked his entire candidacy on the Ames straw poll and Perry avoided it like the plague for the same reason – political ego. Pawlenty knew only a win could bring heft to his paper thin political persona and Perry knew that real egos don’t expose themselves to peripheral popularity surveys as it would only risk their diminishment.   The bottom line effect is a pulling to the right of the political field and the resources needed to fund it.  Only time will tell if this is the last significant shift in the political tectonic plates before the real “bullets” start flying in January 2012.  To win in 2012, a candidate is going to need a lot of ego and a lot of money to take on the undisputed current world champion of both, Barack Obama.

A Great Idea From 1935 Has Met Its Match

    

      A person born in 1935 would proudly be celebrating his or her 76th birthday this year and would be the first to admit a lot has changed since 1935. As much as it is fun to reminisce and have fondness for the earlier, simpler times, the distant year holds memories for very few alive today.  Most of the world of 1935 would be recognizable today but no one would want to rely on the best ideas of that year.  An icebox required – ice – to keep things cool. You could fly in an airplane, but no one except that crazy Lindbergh would really consider taking one across the Atlantic. A boat like the S.S. Normandie, France’s beautiful ship of passage was so much safer, and could cover the distance at an average 30 knots and in a mere 4.5 days.  Then there was the gorgeous 1935 Buick pictured above.  This magnificent car had a spectacular 8 cylinder engine that could produce 93 horsepower and navigate from 10  to 60 miles per hour in only 21 seconds. Yours for the absolute fortune of 935 dollars.  The number 1 Hollywood star was a little girl, Shirley Temple.   The world was at peace, though it did not know in one year, the turmoil in Spain would premise a dark age indeed. 

     Not everything was rosy.  Infectious disease was devastating without antibiotics.  Most of the United States was rural and wanted for essentials like available water or electricity, much less easy food or work.  The Crash of 1929 had deepened into a world wide depression, and a quarter of the population of the United States was chronically unemployed.  The average family income if you had work in 1935 was 474 dollars a year.  The average lifespan for a female 64 years, the male 59, in the high 40’s if you were African American.

     It was time for a great idea to protect the aged and infirm, the poor and the dispossessed. 1935 brought the culmination of the New Deal, the Social Security Act.

     Like the beautiful Buick of 1935, it was built for an earlier time, initiating a pay as you go fund to protect against old age poverty, once you reached the rare heights of 65 years of age.  The pittance of healthy aged that could make it to that olympus of birthdays did not worry where the money came from as there were many workers investing in the system for every retiree that would draw from it.  The economics of the Act were positioned for the 1950s , when the vast assembly of workers fashioned surpluses into the fund that seemed to go as far as the eye could see.  And so the act was expanded to take on groups that weren’t retirees, and eventually in 1965, health care considerations in the Medicare and Medicaid programs. 

     Then the economics of the Act began to get murky.  By 1980, the average lifespan had arisen to 74, and the number of workers to the number of retirees plummeted.  The adjustments were made to the cash flow by demanding higher tax contributions from both worker and employee, and still the economics staggered.  By 2007 the average female lived to 81, the male to 76.  The amounts paid out for this lifespan could not hope to be funded from the individual’s contributions, and the term unfunded liability became an  ominous new catchphrase.  Added to the inevitable mathematics of long life, the number of workers for the number of retirees plummeted, and the gross domestic product of the United States, so long in upward path, began to flatten. 

      Now we are told that the inevitable day when the funds coming in to Social Security will be exceeded by those going out, may come as soon as 2024, and Medicare Medicaid even sooner. Added to the stress is the average house hold income of 2007 -38,600 dollars, overwhelming any expected return from Social Security maximized in the mid twenties, placing substantial life quality contractures on the retiree who relied on Social Security alone.

     We have faced for sometime the inevitable collapse of a system designed for a 1935 life and a 1935 world.  Despite the spectacular changes in the past 76 years, we refuse to admit the law passed to provide security to a small minority for a long ago environment should continue without adjustment or modernization for the role we demand of it today.  We have changed the laws of the country to reflect our maturity in civil rights and equality for all.  We have changed our laws to prevent a President from serving over two terms and establishing a hegemony.  We have changed our laws to reflect the ability to travel cross country or trans ocean in the time it used to take in 1935 to cross town.  But we are stuck with the myth that the Social Security Act of 1935 put forth an eternal truth and a singular means of providing personal security. 

      Nice as it is to reminisce, we really can’t afford to live in 1935 much longer.  Today’s elected official fears the very thought of exposing the myth, but is progressively fearful of being responsible for the coming collapse.  The smart ones like Paul Ryan who are searching for a way out of the trap deserve our support. Hopefully a country where 1935 is a distant memory now for the very, very few,  can stop pretending that we were all there at the conception.

The Debt Titanic


     On April 15th, 1912, the RMS Titanic, on her maiden voyage, the greatest and most beautiful of the White Star class trans-Atlantic passenger ships, improbably shuttered briefly, in the late evening hours, in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. As alien and unsettling the shutter was, it was only briefly present and quickly was gone, and the ship went smoothly on her way to New York. The restored peace was false and illusory, as the fatal blow had already been delivered below the water line of the “unsinkable” three football field long craft, an iceberg buckling the hull plates past three bulkheads, and icy Atlantic water rushing in.  Within three short hours, the ship that had been considered universally from an engineering standpoint virtually “unsinkable”, had drawn an unbearable amout of water within its structure, heaving and splitting the ship, and sending her to the bottom.   The unthinkable had happened, and in a shorter time than any discerning person though conceivable,  with the loss of more than 1500 people.  The RMS Titanic, designed to be the perfect ocean ship, proved to be only too flawed and wholly unprepared for the reality of impacting an iceberg.

     On August 2nd, 2011, an iceberg awaits the titanic ship of state known as the United States economy.  On that day, the momentum of decades of deficit spending acclerated to an intolerable rate in the last few years, will impact against the immovable object of a debt ceiling beyond which the full faith and credit of the United States will be called into question if the impact is not avoided.   As surely as the mass of water finding and expanding weaknesses in Titanic’s hull, a default in the debt will weaken and crumple the solid foundations of an economy built on trust, credit, and investment and shake the country to its very foundations.  As on that terrible starry night in the middle of the Atlantic, the end will come sooner than any would have expected and the window of opportunity to make life saving corrections short indeed.

     The President and Speaker of the House have spent the past week in opposing roles.  The Speaker has been like the iceberg watchman, warning of the floating risks awaiting the ship of state and fashioning aggressive tactics to avoid the unsettling potential doom.  The President has been like the Captain of the proud ship, imperious, arrogant, convinced his place in history to drive the ship ever faster into the night and achieve the soon to be achieved acclaim.  The depressing part of this analogy is that this impending blow will occur in the light of day, premeditated, and in full view of all.  Will no one stop the inevitable sinking of this once unsinkable economy and restore it to its stable foundations?  If not, it won’t be the direct death of thousands, but rather the dagger in the heart of unfettered will, personal opportunity, and economic freedom. 

     If this President continues to drive the spend curve at the expense of fiscal sanity, if he continues to respond to the sinking ship with an insignificant simple re-arrangement of the deck chairs, he will have earned a ignominious title justly deserved – Worst. President. Ever.

Okay, Tell Me One More Time…

     Okay, Tell me one more time. Why is Paul Ryan not running for President? I recall some ideas floated as to why he shouldn’t run, including those he continued to circulate himself – the budget committee needs him; the republican leadership needs him; his kids need him. After listening to Congressman Ryan again put into adult language the extent of the challenge facing this country, the continuing  theme plays out, this country needs him.

      We remain in the grip of soggy leadership that demands more taxes to pay for their uncontrolled spasms of spending, without being to articulate a single measurable process as to how the further sacrifice  of millions of Americans being asked to pay those taxes would have their sacrifice rewarded with government discipline.  Instead we suffer under the  continued hogwash and borderline criminal shoveling of money at 25% of the gross domestic product into bottomless ill defined “projects” and government coffers.  50 million Americans now receiving food stamps to pay for food. Nearly 20% of the country now requiring the government to underwrite their daily meal. 1 out of 6 Americans. Really?  Millions of Americans requiring “emergency” unemployment insurance for as much as four years since they last worked for their check. Really?  The bottom half of the American tax eligible public paying no income taxes. Really?  We will engage in deficit spending in the four years of this President that will equal, in one term, the combined deficit spending  of the first 232 years and first 43 Presidents of this republic. Really?

      We will never face up to the mature debate required to solve our mess unless we get people in positions of power who can understand the depth of the problem and articulate the way forward.  I suffer with the alternatives so far available to expose the emperor  having no clothes.  Listen to the message below and tell me the obvious best choice isn’t the congressman from Wisconsin.  The time is now to get into the arena. Right now.




Kabuki Theater and the Debt Ceiling Debate

     The great Japanese theater tradition of Kabuki reflects a stylized avant garde theater of the bizarre to dramatize the juxtaposition of the inner and outer emotions of the participants.  Grand kabuki is going on these days regarding the debt ceiling “crisis” in Washington, and the lead actor of the bizarre is our president himself, who has played multiple roles in the last week of the “sage adult”, “budget warrior”, “aggrieved victim”, and “petulant child”.  It would approach comical if it wasn’t so darn serious and sad at the same time. 

      In the grand tradition of kabuki, this story is predominantly one of tragedy. The most self-sufficient country on earth has managed to amass a 14.5 trillion dollar debt and over 4 trillion of it was prodigiously produced in just the last three years. The government currently borrows 43 cents on every dollar it spends and there is no end in sight. In this particular theatrical tragedy, the president warns of the calamity that will befall us if we don’t raise the debt limit allowing us to continue to sew the seeds of our own destruction, not the calamity that will befall us if we continue to spend like spendaholics and accumulate even more massive debt for us and our children. The shared responsibility of the accumulated debt for each of the over three hundred million Americans is a nice round number of about 45, 000 dollars per citizen, and that does not include the unfathomable sum of 100 trillion more of estimated unfunded liabilities.

     What does our Kabuki grand master say about such dire scenarios? Well, its obvious to him that the obstruction to fiscal sanity is the rich not paying their fair share. That’s an effective mask to wear when emoting in front of a hurting American public, but the facts would suggest that if President Obama succeeded at confiscating 100% of the earnings of the top ten percent of the country in taxes, he would manage to pay off a third of the total budget he currently spends in a single fiscal year. Nice start and sorry about that confiscation angle, but clearly that rhetoric doesn’t even remotely budge the burgeoning debt exposure.

     The apparently difficult thing for everyone to understand is that if you spend considerably more than your income, the best way to reduce your fiscal vulnerability is to only spend maximally what your income is. Certainly we can even argue that spending every last dollar of your income is probably not good budget management either, in that one would hope there would always be savings for future needs. Instead we are spending for past needs, present needs, and future needs all on present income. Somehow the government senses we will figure a way in the future to fix the mess when the problem has ballooned to even more stratospheric levels when we find our currently collective will to solve it now is non-existent.  This is what George Will of the Washington Post refers to as the government’s “terrifying self-confidence”.     

The actors in kabuki are participants in a play where the greater audience can see the unfolding tragedy and are powerless to stop it. The issue fundamentally will never be whether the United States should be permitted to default on the money it is indebted to pay. The issue is whether we will ever ask ourselves again as adults used to do in this country,what are we spending money on, is it money well spent, and can we afford it. People in Washington DC, come on! The play is over, real life is here, and its time to put away the masks and the party favors.

Duelling in Madison Leaves Something to be Desired

    
     We live in a time of great political passion and emotional people regarding the critical issues of our time. But I mean, really people, is THIS the best we can do? Christian Schneider in National Review Online documents the “duel” between recently re-elected Justice David Proesser and his foil on the Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Ann Walsh Bradley as tempers arose regarding the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s decision last week to reject a district judge’s sloppy opinion to hold up the Wisconsin legislature’s pending law on collective bargaining for government employees.

     Putting aside the merits of asking government employees to share some burden in funding their pensions or health insurance and the constitutional issue as to whether the judiciary somehow has veto power over legislative process, the fundamental issue in the duel appears to have been the two justices inconsolable disdain for each other. Now that’s the kind of thing that in the old days would have led to a good ol’ fashioned duel. In this case, however, as is inferred by reports, Justice Bradley is accusing Justice Proesser of putting her in “a choke hold” as she apparently rushed him to physically force him out of her office. Justice Proesser is suggested by other witnesses to have put his hands on her shoulders to repel her as she charged him. The extent of the behavior appears to have been at the level of, “Oh yeah? …So’s yur old man!” The infantile denouement has perfectly captured the character of debate of this spring in the state of Wisconsin over the ‘outrage’ of a state legislature performing their elected and constitutional responsibility of balancing the state budget. The reaction of a segment of the state populous to duly elected officials performing their duty? – that would be sit-downs, threats of violence, massed demonstrations, death threats, legislator out of state flight, and recall elections. God forbid that the legislature or governor seek to improve the state in any other way. All hell is likely to break loose.

     Thankfully we can count on the dignity of judicial tradition to evaluate issues based on their merits in law and in constitutional precedent, and not be swayed by the unstable passions of emotion and political avarice.  Actually that would be..No.  The disease of political tactics, smear campaigns, and power grabs has invaded the judicial class as intensely as it has the political class, and the result is a generation of ill-considered politically stained judicial decisions and a lowest common denominator judges.  We’ve come to a time where Justice is not only blind, but deaf and dumb as well.

     Well., it could be worse. The paddycake shoving match between the Justices pales in comparison to the charged political emotions of the 19th century, when a threat or an insult, or worse yet a pattern of verbal abuse, could get a politician challenged to a duel.  On July 11th, 1804 the third Vice President of the United States Aaron Burr shot and killed the first Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton in a duel on the New Jersey banks of the Hudson within view of New York City.  The two men hated each other but the real gasoline for the duel was Hamilton’s persistent efforts to suppress Mr. Burr’s overarching political ambitions.  Locked in a verbal death match long before the actual firing of the dueling pistols, the two opponents simply could not envision a world where both their political views could be justified. They sought to enforce their will rather than develop their alternative arguments for this nation’s future. 

     I’m not saying that the push and shove silliness that just occurred between a cranky old conservative and witchy liberal intransigent is at that the level of an event that cost us one of our most brilliant founding fathers, Alexander Hamilton.  But the reality is that the dangerous fanning of emotions that rise above civil discourse and legal prudence  can overwhelm and distort any rational debate, and put the opponents on a course of accepting no less than complete triumph, or experiencing inconsolable defeat.

     Alexander Hamilton on the morning of July 11th, 1804, shot first, and into the air, to preserve his dignity, and prove his point of view.  Aaron Burr shot into Alexander Hamilton’s abdomen to preserve his dignity, and to prove the demise of  Alexander Hamilton’s point of view – forever.

     The state of Wisconsin is but a laboratory for the process that will soon envelop of national debate as we try to arrest our exploding fiscal crisis. The emotions of the paddycake duel in Madison are trivial to what this debate nationally will involve.  We best get our emotional acts together or, 19th century may again seem all too real.

Out of the Paddocks

    
     The 2012 Presidential race has begun in earnest with the recent debate between prospective Republican candidates at a forum sponsored by CNN. The seriousness of the issues to be debated by candidates showing interest in being the chief executive officer of the most powerful country in the world is often obscured by the circus atmosphere and “horse race” descriptions provided by the media who look at the contest as a form of entertainment to be marketed. We are still nearly a year and and a half before electing the next President but in keeping with irritating recent tendencies to start the next presidential campaign almost immediately after the election of the current office holder, the process and players is already taking shape. The horse race analogy is superficial but does allow early characterization of the candidates in relation to each other. It is apparent that the early field of committed racers has been assembled, and is about to leave the paddocks. RAMPARTS is willing to take its first look at the competitors and size up their chances.

      The Reigning Champion– Barack Obama, the winner of the last race, leaves the paddock first as the presumptive democrat party candidate to take on all challengers. He will be well positioned with unqualified support from the main stream media, who see him as what a President should be like, a huge amount of campaign cash, and the cocky confidence of a man who has had an dazzlingly fast ride to the top almost obstacle free. This race horse, however formidable, will have to carry substantially more weight than desired on his back, with an objectively poor track record in the job – historically high unemployment, stratospheric deficits as a consequence of his failed stimulus policies, and an American population that senses a country hurdling toward has been status. Obviously the early favorite out of the paddock but expect to see the odds drop fast.

     The Best Pedigree– Mitt Romney has run for President before, has been Governor of Massachusetts, run a successful Olympics, has solid business credentials, looks the part of a champion, and is the son of former Governor of Michigan and 1968 presidential candidate George Romney. Romney has done what all front runners do. He has tried to avoid alienating anybody, worked to look inevitable, and positioned himself to be substantial. Unfortunately for him as with previous races, when the public has to decide if he has the stuff of champions I think they will look elsewhere. There is no there there to capture the public’s need for a winner that will best represent in their minds what a champion should be – fearless, passionate, tough in the mud, aggressive when challenged, powerful down the stretch, and immediately recognizable as a champion. Additionally he carries the dead weight of global warming advocacy and health care mandates into the race similar to Obama, without the charisma of the current champion to lighten his load. These horses almost never win, place, or even show. Ask Romney’s father George, John Glenn, Edmund Muskie, John Connally, or Nelson Rockefeller.

     The Speed Horse– Michelle Bachmann wowed the viewing audience of the debate with her unexpected eloquence, verve, and competitiveness. Horse race purists, however, were not surprised by the Minnesota congresswoman’s performance. She has been energy driven her entire life – a successful lawyer and the mother of five who has cared for 23 foster children. She has successfully taken on the mantle of the important tea party voting group, defining a form of constitutional purity that guarantees her strength in the primary battles. The questions to be answered as the race begins in earnest are evident in this competitor who comes from nowhere. How will the filly do shoulder to shoulder with the stronger horses? Will she be able to gallop to the lead and hold it? Will the length of the race, which is almost always about endurance, make her sprinting capacity inconsequential? A horse to watch, but don’t bet the farm.

     The Early Underdog(horse)– Herman Cain carries equal street cred with the tea party purists as Michelle Bachmann. He was an early tea party speaker who brought outsider excitement to his speeches and free enterprise credentials as former chairman of Godfather’s Pizza, Inc. In an election where, once again, the economy will likely be the dominant issue, Mr. Cain knows how jobs are created and businesses are built. This particular race horse, however, has never been in an actual race. Winning is almost always about understanding the race and its atmosphere. The hard working plow horse does not suddenly find itself comfortable with the skills necessary for racing. It is unlikely that Mr. Cain will find his footing when the challenge is not his own strength in pulling the load, but rather, pushing the field. Long shot. Definite long shot.

     The Contender– Tim Pawlenty is the race horse comprising any quality racing field. He has a strong record as a former steady governor of the state of Minnesota, worked hard to position himself as a broadly skilled candidate, showing the common touch, well developed ideas, competitive instincts, and an excellent team of support. A closer look, though, reveals some serious vulnerabilities. Pawlenty was an early advocate for carbon credits proposed at the height of global warming scam that almost enveloped the American economy- an absolute non-starter for objectivists and individual freedom advocates like myself. He was comfortable with the concept of health care mandates, almost as deadly, to any libertarian. He has changed his strategy, and apparently his mind, on these issues. Is he a race horse that under the challenge presented by the competition that will revert to old habits under stress? Additionally, although he has some speed, some strength, some endurance, some toughness, does he have enough of any to be in a position to finish at the end? Can he overcome the speed horse from his own state, Bachmann? The bettors will hedge their bets on this one and want to watch him on a few tracks before they put down their money. Likely middle of the pack.

     The Old Racehorse – Newt Gingrich will be 69 years old on election day. He certainly has been a champion in his day. A race warrior of past glories. He has never been short of ideas, good or bad, has lead his party in Congress as Speaker of the House, is a glib speaker, and has thick skin resistant to the competitor’s whip. The weaknesses though, abound, in this old steed. This horse hasn’t won a race in forever. Out of the paddock, he as already shown lousy instincts, skittishness, illucid ideas, and poor form. He will enter the gates a former champion, but won’t finish the race. A wasted bet, no matter what the odds.

     The International Entry – Former Utah Governor John Huntsman has not officially entered the race but is about to do so. He is the one entry with foreign policy experience having recently served as President Obama’s Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China.  Is it a plus in a year where the focus is so directed on domestic economic issues to ride a crafty race as the world savvy candidate?  Like foreign horses used to racing on grass, the muddy track of a U.S. primary process may be something very difficult for Huntsman to navigate, given his only other elective experience was in the state of Utah where the conservative republican vote is king.  Huntsman speaks fluent Mandarin, a skill that will be valuable in dealing with the emerging power of the twenty first century, China, but in American politics, his ability to “talk turkey” with the average voter will need to show itself.  Good looking horse out of the paddock, but can he really run to win?

     The Field Filler– A race requires race horses for perspective, and the 2012 Presidential race is no different. Rick Santorum is a solid conservative with relative eloquence and principled views. On previous racetracks, however, he has shown a rigidity and inflexibility that makes him unlikely to be in the final win, place, or show discussion. A former Senator of Pennsylvania, he proved unable to hold his own seat, and has struggled to avoid the “far right” tag that has been placed on him, and looks at this time to be “just another horse”.

     The Outsider – The winner of the the “fringe” position remains Ron Paul. A strict libertarian, who won’t change even when circumstances do, Paul reminds me of Eddie “”the Eagle” Edwards, Great Britain’s only Olympic ski jump competitor in history, who got to ski jump in the 1988 Olympics for his country, because there was essentially no one else in that non-ski country that wanted to. He jumped, and landed…and finished dead last. But he jumped when many told him not to, and somehow landed – so there was a chance that if every other competitor would fall down, he might have won. Ron Paul should be so lucky.

     The Heavyweights on the Sidelines– The field though feels incomplete. Several significant contenders remain on the sidelines that would immediately change the race dynamics. Sarah Palin is Michelle Bachmann on steroids, a former Vice Presidential candidate with celebrity status,  a star at any political event. She is the Momma Bear that has already withstood enormous insults, personal attacks, unending media taunts regarding her supposed “intellectual deficits”, and remained standing. She would no doubt be much more formidable than anyone is willing to admit, but does she really want to take on the lightning rod position, or be the financially successful sideline star that she is in spades? Ego is a funny thing- I wouldn’t bet against her. Governor Rick Perry of Texas is positioned to go and if he decides to enter, becomes the southern conservative candidate in the race, the electorally enviable position. Perry has talent, toughness, economic credibility, and a seriously attractive libertarian streak. He also would be the slotted “governor of Texas” candidate – is there room for another one of those to the voting public after George W. Bush? That alone is the likely reason that Perry has spent so much political capital distancing himself from the Bush legacy and the royal Bush family themselves. Former Governor Jed Bush of Florida has done it all and in any other time and place would be a front runner – but this is a democracy, not a monarchy- no matter the talent of this horse, it looks like he is destined to stay on grass tracks and out of the Triple Crown running. Former mayor of New York Giuliani is again interested; tough, smart, and outspoken, this formidable contender flopped in his previous run and may be simply too much damaged goods to be a factor this time. Lastly, there is the potential Superhorse, the two year old champion every Triple Crown fan is waiting for is waiting for, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. He has smarts, talent, savvy, intellectual gravitas, debating skills, youth, looks, and common touch – the marks of a once in a generation race horse. One problem only – he doesn’t think it is yet his time. If the horse is willing to enter the starting gate, there is no chance to see how he races. This horse may turn out to be more Barbero than Secretariat, all the potential in the world, but frustratingly and maybe tragically missing his moment to shine.

     That’s your field out of the paddock. Its going to be a long race. Get to your seats, and prepare for the unexpected. RAMPARTS bet is is still with the champion, but for the country’s sake, our hopes and prayers are for a really special winner to emerge.

Newt Augers In

     Newt Gingrich is currently a candidate for the Republican nomination to the presidency of the United States, but he has a much chance of gaining the nomination as Ron Paul, a candidate from the fringes of the fringe.  Michael Barone of National Review Online has a sage article lamenting the sad state of affairs Mr. Gingrich’s candidacy currently finds itself, and recalls the times when the Gingrich flame shone much more brightly.  The augering in of Newt’s campaign is not a process of bad luck, but rather enigmatic of Newt’s whole public life – full of grand ideas, potential, and ultimately self inflicted wounds.  Mr. Gingrich may be the only candidate currently soldiering on without a single candidacy staff member, as his entire team mutinied last week and left him for greener pastures. He may be the only person left who believes that the brilliance of his ideas will overwhelm any voter’s hesitancy about  the “Newt package” that promotes them.  But that’s typical of the pilot who augers in his plane, refusing to jump out of a hopelessly out of control aircraft in the innate belief that at the last second, he will regain control.  What appears clear to just about everybody but Newt, the jig is up, and his time as a defining force in American politics has come and gone.

     A trip down memory road to a much younger version of Gingrich revealed all the talents of an intellectual dervish.  He came into American politics in 1978 and flew in the face of the treasured myth of American media that conservatives were stupid and neanderthalish, and therefore not to be taken seriously in matters of governmental philosophy.  Winning a seat prior to the Reagan revolution was no small feat for a conservative, but Gingrich was an unabashed southern conservative Republican when the terms southern, conservative, and democrat were synonymous.  He set about immediately to build the disheveled and dysfunctional republican backbenchers into a force, to the the dismay of party leadership who long felt that the demographics of the country were such that they could never again hope to be a majority party in the House of Representatives and therefore should simply work toward the best possible relationship with the eternally dominant Democrats.  Gingrich would have none of it, and discovered a heretofore unknown weapon, the first television broadcasts from the House floor broadcast on C-SPAN.  Standing alone on the floor at night Gingrich spoke to no one but the camera, initiating a blistering and continuous attack on Democrat leadership and a creative and intellectually diverse lecture on the America’s problems, proposing in-depth solutions.  Both Republican and Democratic leadership hoped and assumed no one was watching, but a steadily growing number of people were, and the rest of the backbenchers began to frame their arguments in similar fashion. 

      To the horror of leadership, Gingrich opened his sights on the House Speaker himself, Jim Wright, regarding Wright’s classic back room shenanigans to use a book deal for a ghost written biography to circumvent campaign finance laws and a secondary assault on the House Post Office and Bank  for similar kickbacks to congressmen.  To the amazement of the Republicans, Gingrich the general proved brilliant and victorious, taking down the reigning Speaker, and exposing the soft underbelly of a  House made moribund over 40 years of consecutive democrat rule.  Young conservatives like Judd Gregg, John Kasich, Connie Mack, and Dick Armey began to work with Newt to present an alternative based on ideas and intellectual honesty, and by 1994, the American population was primed to listen to the alternative to a government  without limit or direction.  Gingrich devised the revolutionary Contract with America, a ten step agreement with the American people to say what they would do, and do what they would say, if elected.  In a stunning electoral outcome, Gingrich led a second Republican revolution and took the House of Representatives for the first time in 42 years. The Outlaw had become amazingly Speaker of the House, and for a time Speaker Gingrich, so different than the shallow political hacks before him,  amazed the country by passing every one of the planks in the Contract, leading eventually to welfare reform, and serious legislation regarding term limits, electoral reform, congressional ethics, and a balanced budget.  For a year or more, Gingrich stood at the zenith of American political royalty, becoming the only speaker in history to have given a nationally televised policy speech, and so outshining the President, that President Clinton had to declare that he was still “relevant” to a Gingrich enraptured press, and declare in a State of the Union address that the “era of Big Government was over”.

     Gingrich’s fall came upon his own outsized ego, and  assuming his political skills and likeability were a match to those of the crafty Arkansan in the White House. Gingrich’s ultimate prize was to achieve a balanced budget, and he cornered the president into accepting a balanced budget through cuts or experience and unheard of  shut down of government.  Sounds eerily familiar to the present circumstances.  Clinton recognized he could achieve the veneer of both a fiscally responsible executive and make Gingrich appear heartless at the same time, and the  shutdown backfired. Clinton got to take credit for the subsequent years of progressively balanced budgets, built on Republican budgetary discipline and a republican inspired Capital Gains Tax cut,  and bask in the progressive attack on Gingrich from all comers for his authoritarian style, ethical vulnerabilities, and frankly loose cannon of a mouth.  The result of the Gingrich years, electoral reform, welfare reform, freezing of governmental growth, capital gains tax cuts, budgetary surpluses, and tough but fair crime laws. For all that, check mate and match to the president with worse personal ethics, but better likeability and much more acutely honed personal political skills.  By 1997, Gingrich was vulnerable, a victim of his own party’s mutiny against him for his authoritarian ways and ethical lapses, led by John Boehner, the current Speaker of the House, and Bill Paxson of New York.  By 1998, the weakened Gingrich had lost his Speaker role, and determined not to run again for Congress.  The bright light that had changed American political direction so profoundly was left to teach college courses and plot a comeback someday.

     The someday was this year, with his decision to run for President, but Gingrich proved his pulse on the voter was no longer precise, and his habit of throwing fireballs at windmills just as out of control as ever.  A ridiculous attack on Paul Ryan, the modern day intellectual version of Gingrich in the width and breath of his ideas, was petty and ill considered, and left him back tracking on the very weekend of his announcement.  His additional decision to have his current wife act as his chief of staff left the professionals in his campaign aghast, and soon left Newt without a campaign staff.  His current ideas seem scattered and disorganized, and worse, dated.

     Gingrich is in my mind done as a political figure, but his contribution to the storied period of time when the Congress showed itself to be fiscally responsible in the 1990’s to the great benefit of America, is a shining example of what is possible if you combine intelligence, energy, and vision to the framework  allowed by our founding fathers – for a brief time, the best and most creative governmental function in history.  Newt, sorry you had to find out how we have moved on, but for what you brought to the table before and the table you helped set, is now just waiting for the right chef to feed a country hungry for real, workable leadership.  It just won’t be you, compadre.

Falklands Redux

      The founding Charter of the United Nations in 1945 contained in its first article the right of self determination of a people declaring “all peoples have a right to self determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status, and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.” The assumption might be, if you were to absorb the direct interpretation of such lofty language and principle, that a self contained set of lonely islands inhabited by 3000 people, recognizing their inability to provide for the overarching themes of government, such as the capacity for a currency and means of defense, would have such a right of self determination, and the capacity to choose their government of administration. Furthermore, if 99% of the stated inhabitants were absolutely committed to one common future, it would seem rational that the international arbiters of the Charter would make strong efforts to see the people achieve their goals of peaceful co-existence under the flag of their choice.

      No such luck, when it comes to the Falkland Islands.

   The Falkland Islands, a collection of two main and 776 lesser islands 250 miles off the coast of the southern tip of Argentina, have found themselves increasingly isolated in their efforts to retain their British ties and thoroughly British way of life. An uninhabitated cluster of islands first landed by the British explorer Captain John Strong in 1690 by accident, the islands for the next 150 years were under the continual tug of multiple nations and influences until coming under permanent British control as a formal colony in 1841. This included a brief period of several attempts at Argentinian colonization from 1828 to 1833. The restoration of British sovereignty has continued unabated from 1833 until the present and its continuance is the overwhelming desire of the local inhabitants, who want no part of would-be overlords from the surrounding neighborhood.
      The issue of sovereignty suddenly became a hot one in 1982 when Argentina declared it would enforce its rule over the inhabitants, invading the islands, and the inhabitants called to Britain to provide their defense. In the short but bloody conflict known as the Falklands War in Britain and the War of the Malvinas in Argentina, nearly a thousand soldiers lost their lives, and Britain rested control back from the Argentinians. The islanders on multiple occasions have noted their overwhelming support for the outcome, and are as proudly British as the girls from Cornwall and the boys from Bristol.
      The world we live in however has always struggled to do the right thing, particularly in international bodies, where the politics of power and convenience have often raised an ugly flag. The latest is the Organization of American States were Argentina has found common cause with such supporters of individual rights as Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. In a direct challenge to Great Britain and a threat to the people of the Falklands, a Declaration has put forth describing the Falklands under the Argentina label “Malvinas” and demanding that Great Britian and Argentina immediately enter into direct negotiations as to the “Malvinas” future sovereignity. The desires of the actual inhabitants of the islands – not an issue for clarification. The issue has becoming particularly acute lately with the identification of the Falklands as a potential source of vast oil deposits lying outside Argentina’s official 200 mile continental shelf claim. The impoverished government of Argentina would love to get their hands on the Falklander’s bounty, whether the locals wish their help or not.

     Great Britain obviously has absolutely no interest in discussing the future of part of their commonwealth with a government that has a tenuous claim to any postion regarding the islands and one they defeated in a war. For the British at least, they have been always able to count on the backing of their closest ally, the United States of America – until now. The Obama administration, in another of its recent schizophrenic policy efforts to side with tyrants and ignore free will and determination, has signed on to the declaration. Britain, who has backed the United States time and time again as allies and spilled the blood of her sons in defense of United States national interests, is understandably miffed at Obama’s fair weather bonds of friendship. President Obama, in another calculated effort to side with those issues the United States traditionally opposed on the basis of freedom and democracy, has once again thrown its principles under the bus, in hopes of gaining “street cred” with those states that could care less as to common interests with the US. This nieve policy continues unabated despite one calamity and mis-step after another. The British are rapidly learning what others have found out in Poland, the Czech Republic, and on the streets of Tehran and Cairo. This President’s support will be a mile away and an inch deep at most. The Falklands are just one more step in the destruction of a framework of trust built up over many years, that in issues of freedom, rights, and social responsibility, the United States would always be in your corner. That, my friends, is one painful introduction to our modern reality- with this particular President, you are going to be on your own.