Impeachment Circus

On February 24th, 1868, after three years of open conflict with a President of the United States they universally detested, the House of Representatives of the United States passed 11 articles of Impeachment against President Andrew Johnson. The accidental President Johnson, brought to the position of the Presidency through the tragic assassination of President Lincoln, was from the first day of his oath a mistake the victorious Republican radicals of congress hoped to cleanse. Lincoln had determined at a difficult time in his reelection bid to remove the competent Hannibal Hamlin of Maine as his running mate in 1864, and replace him with Johnson, the Governor of Tennessee who was a pro Union Democrat. Lincoln, always the strategic thinker, sought to invigorate the necessary unifying forces that would help bring the nation somehow together after the bloody conflict of the Civil War. He saw the new Vice President as symbolic of the steps needed to begin binding the nation’s wounds, not remotely as a substitute for himself in the treacherous post war world that ultimately would come. The assassin Boothe would decide differently.

By 1868, Johnson and the Republican Congress were so at odds that both sought to bend the Constitution to subvert the other. Radical Republicans in Congress passed Amendments to the Constitution that would forever end slavery and provide all men with voting rights. Johnson, a Southerner and strict States Rights advocate, saw such laws as unjust with the southern states yet to be formerly represented in the post war congress. He vetoed their actions, and Congress overrode his veto. These laws, like all laws, required executive cooperation in their actualization, and Secretary of War Stanton, a Lincoln holdover and Radical Republican, took Congress’s direction over the President’s. The Congress, to prevent Johnson from removing Stanton, passed the Tenure In Office Law that demanded Congress would have last say on removal of Cabinet Ministers, a highly dubious extra-constitutional act. Johnson waited until Congress was in recess, and removed Stanton, and all hell broke loose.

For the first time, the mechanism of checks and balances put in place by the framers of the Constitution came into stark relief, as one branch, the legislative, determined to remove the Chief Executive of another branch.

The House of Representatives … shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.

— Article I, Section 2, Clause 5
The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two-thirds of the Members present.

Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States; but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.

—Article II, Section 2
The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.

—Article II, Section 4

The 11 articles of Impeachment passed by the House of Representatives against President Johnson included two that referred to the House’s disdain for the rough language the President was renowned for using. The other nine referred to Johnson’s determination to remove Stanton, which very likely was his Constitutional prerogative. The key to the first effort to impeach a President of the United States foundered on the rocks of the vagaries expressed in Article II, Section 4 – what exactly are High Crimes and Misdemeanors?

As bad as Congress detested Johnson, many recognized the action of removal was an extreme act for overturning an election, and on May 16,1868, the initial article was voted upon, and fell one vote short of the two thirds necessary to acquit, including 10 of the 45 Republicans voting with the minority Democrats. A ten day recess was requested in hopes of swaying at least one more vote. Rumors of bribes offered to the nay sayers were rife, but to no avail. All three votes taken were 35-19, and President Johnson kept his job.

Later years have brought at least two close calls. President Nixon resigned in August of 1973 before imminent articles of impeachment were voted upon by the House, and in 1998 William Clinton was impeached but easily survived the Senate trial falling a full 17 votes short of the article intimating Obstruction of Justice.

At the heart of each prior impeachment, there has been the intimation of a suspected crime, failure to uphold the laws of the United States by Johnson, a coverup of crimes by Nixon, and Perjury by Clinton.

And that brings us to 2020, where we find ourselves in another impeachment process again brought by an opposition House that detests the President, and dumped into a Senate that wants little to do with the political hit job . Particularly galling with this attempt – the absence of any premised much less actual crime. The House flipped to Democrat leadership in 2018, and has been on a mission to “dump Trump” for the temerity of having beaten Hillary Clinton in 2016 and sticking his thumb in the Obama legacy ever since.

The first attempt at emasculation was the two year Mueller investigation to try to connect Trump somehow to the election result through “Russian collusion”. As the facts arrived, the dirt seemed to fall dramatically more upon the attacking Democrats, with the faint stench of a possible internal “coup” attempt laced with grossly inappropriate spying and warrants around the naive Trump team entirely based upon clumsy and dirty opposition research paid for and provided by the opposition Clinton team. When that fell through, the party immediately latched upon a so called “whistleblower” , using that designation for given credence to bringing forward a private interaction between the President and a foreign leader. As with the previous attempt the dirt attached to the Ukraine story appears to have even more to say regarding Democrat actions than Trumpian misdeeds. When all is said and done, the evidence of accepting bribes, paid for influence, and corrupt action may well end Democrat candidate for President Joe Biden’s career rather than Trump.

But first, the circus must go on. Impeachment, designed by the founders as a particularly rare and necessarily nonpartisan identification of dramatic malfeasance requiring the upset of the balance powers through a mechanism other than election, has once again fallen far short of the mark. Two articles proffered by the House of Representatives , neither defining a crime, a treason or a bribe, have been submitted for the single intent to sufficiently damage Trump to prevent his re-election. Once again, the disqualification falls more upon those who would attempt to disqualify. For all his personality flaws, Donald John Trump has led an unprecedented expansion of the economy, obliteration of unemployment, restoration of some trade balance, dramatic reduction in regulations, securing of the country’s border, and restoration of the concept of deference in a dangerous world.

Hating his guts will prove to be a lousy logic for impeachment, and an even lousier one for defeating him in an election. As Lyman Trumball of Illinois, one of the Republican Senators who voted for the acquittal of President Johnson sagely reflected, the freedom to disagree with Congress has to be upheld if checks and balances of the Constitution are to be maintained. For self righteous people stoked with irrational anger, blowing up the Constitution seems to be a necessary sacrifice to make them feel vindicated. The lesson Trump is about to deliver is going to be a particularly nasty wakeup call indeed.

Once More Unto the Breach…

Great Britain House of Commons Election 2019
photo collage attrib. news.sky .com

For the third time since 2015, the electorate of the four nations that make up the United Kingdom of Great Britain came together on Thursday December 12, 2019 to form a governing legislative body. A process of parliament formation normally designed essentially to occur on five year intervals, the populous staggered toward this premature repeat performance based on a wrenchingly conflicted public perception as to whether a House of Commons still determined the destiny of the nation, or sensing the concept of nation having grown tired to the point of making the formation of a House of Commons a quant relic of the past, passively adjusting to a future decided ultimately by others. Parliamentary systems allow for individuals to identify with others who hold in common very specific views of life and destiny, ultimately leading to much fragmentation and the need for unstable coalitions for governance.

As in much of the rest of the world the issue became one of basically two life views, one which seeks security and outcome equality, and one which favors personal freedom and equal opportunity. Poorly defined as Left or Right, Progressive or Conservative, the democratic electorates of the world have aligned themselves in one camp or the other, and thus the outcomes of elections have become ever more polar. It becomes increasingly harder to imagine oneself in the universe of the other party, influenced or compromising with it, or reflecting a conversion of one’s ideals by actually voting for the opposite view.

Then, an idea like Brexit comes into being and the traditional boundaries are awash on the shoals. The British public found themselves in 2016 voting across party lines in a referendum vigorously unsupported by the party leadership of both the left and the right, in a stunning win for the concept of national destiny over supranational security. This fundamental issue subsumed all others to the point where arguing about taxes, health care, immigration, education and other polar issues of the left and right had become subservient to the destiny issue. The result was a schism in almost all parties along the Leave or Remain fault line, to the horror of the all the standard politicians who have lived in the realm pandering to like minded people who once loyally shared their universe. Suddenly, the Progressives were finding support in the landed gentry, and the Conservatives were sifting through the Midlands, Wales, and Scotland to seek industrial laboring commoners who would not normally give them the time of day.

BBC graphic regarding electoral issues

The night of December 12th brought clarity to this schism, at least as defined by the voting public of Great Britain, if not attaching broader implications to other democracies. The left in Britain, found itself calamitously anchored on the seizing electoral deck to Jeremy Corbyn, a caricature of a sixties counterculture communista, promoting failed socialism of the 1970s and tolerating vailed anti-Semitic threats from the darker radical elements of his party, and counting on a supposed burgeoning emotional vote of youthful victimaholics and virtue signalers. Corbyn, like his party, remained paralyzed by the Brexit impulse. Traditional socialism would require release from many of the state capitalism tenets of the European Union, but the very youth he was counting on to drive his vote were generationally opposed to standing athwart the collective global impulses of a European superstate that sought to make obsolete quant national notions of unfettered destiny and individual freedom of action.

The Conservative Tories were equally conflicted. The Tory elite had assumed the attachment to the superstate a permanent reality, and stunned by the initial 2016 vote they had overconfidently reasoned would remove any notions that the nation would go its own path, were left in shambolic hypocrisy of delaying and deferring the Brexit date as many times as possible, in hopes the public would simply become exhausted by it and relent to staying. The David Camerons, Theresa Mays, and cadre of front bencher elites always saw themselves diminished by not being included in the EU club of elites, and couldn’t imagine an alternative world where the hobnobbing would have to be limited to crass Australians, Indians, or worse, Americans.

To this dysfunctional party came one Boris Johnson. A politician labelled as grossly undisciplined, disconnected to traditions of party, and borderline randy-ish, Johnson had almost uniquely positioned himself to be Prime Minister after the Brexit referendum of 2016 by being the solitary Brexiteer of the 2016 party establishment, only to clumsily flub his opportunity and provide the stunned elite to recover their senses and wedge their way back into the driver’s seat. This time however, Johnson showed the capacity to learn from his lack of discipline and took two massive risks that initially appearing foolhardy paid off as an electoral quinella. First, he declared for an immediate winter election that risked his fragile coalition and his position as prime minister while removing standing for all MPs that were anti-Brexit, and stated unequivocally that the primary impact of a Tory victory would be an immediate Brexit undertaking – no more delays come what may. Johnson saw intuitively that his clarity would confound the other parties, so afraid of the Brexit mentality straining the party base support on all other societal issues, while equally unwilling to come out as supporters of the EU, which they secretly and most assuredly were.

December 12th, 2019 brought clarity all right. It brought a smashing victory for Boris Johnson’ instincts and final vindication for the twenty five year struggle of Nigel Farage, the patron saint of Brexit. Farage’s self sacrificing gambit to “trust” Johnson’s commitment to Brexit, avoid safe Tory seats, and concentrate on Labour strongholds where Brexit wistfulness was high, was a dramatic contributor to Labour losing a spectacular 59 seats and Tory MP’s sweeping in to pick up the collateral. Almost alone over 25 years, Farage had brazenly driven the Brexit concept when it was laughed at by all elites and media sages – one can suggest now it is Farage who can have the last laugh.

attrib. to ABCNEWS.Go.Com

Now the political leaderships on both sides of the pond are led by raffish, and sometimes buffoonish ubercharacters that seem to have an animal instinct as to the core impulses of their nations. We have been told for years that the science is settled, that new generations are interested only in their self reflection and their global need to blend in to truly feel secure. We have been fed this line by a compliant media that wishes it were true, and will do whatever it can to establish the ideal as a reality. Yet, time after time, the outcomes don’t fit the narrative, and free people keep upsetting the idea of inevitability. Boris Johnson now has his triumph. We will see if he can close the deal. In America, his doppelgänger is under massive attack by his own elite and media, that seeks to overturn what they are convinced was an immature spasm of the voting public in 2016 that brought the contrarian political Trump to stunning life. They are furious that in democracies, the clarity of righteousness is not always appreciated by a public that doesn’t always seem to understand the arc of history as they do.

If Trump survives, I suspect we will see a similar electoral thumping of the elites very well may be in the cards. Then, between Johnson and Trump, and the nascent Johnsons and Trumps watching with great interest in other democracies, things could really get interesting. Maybe freedom and its twin destiny are not quant relics of the past after all.

Once more into the breach, my friends, once more into the breach.

The Collusion Narrative and Trump – The Arc of Justice

Former Director of the FBI James Comey testifies before Congress in the Russian Collusion investigation – attrib photo politico.com

When President Obama assumed the Presidency of the United States in 2009, he ushered in changes that reflected his desire to, as he stated it, to totally transform the United States. The decorum of the Oval Office in the White House was converted to reflect this change, including a carpet bordered with deep quotations that would orient the philosophy of the new administration, devoted as it was to a social justice revolution. The new President was particularly fond of one of the carpet quotations he had selected that he attributed to Martin Luther King, Jr:

Obama Oval Office carpet – photo White House Museum

The arc of the moral Universe is long , but it bends toward Justice

Unfortunately like so many other things in the Obama Administration, the surface veneer did not reflect real life facts. It turns out that the author of the quote was not Dr. King, as Obama had convinced himself, but rather , an abolitionist Unitarian minister, Theodore Parker, who proffered the remark in a collection of sermons in 1853.

Oh well, the point was that eventually justice wins out. An errant fact was not going to upset the narrative of the administration, which was, as the press insisted on telling us – scandal free – in its drive to transform us. Well maybe that wasn’t quite true either. It may well turn out that the Obama Administration, particularly through its national security and justice arms, determined to achieve the ultimate in scandalous behavior, the undermining of a political opponent, Trump, prevent his electoral victory, and when not successful in that, engage a sustained effort to weaken and destroy his Presidency. The famous e-mail by FBI agent Peter Stroch to his lover FBI lawyer Lisa Page referencing the presence of an “insurance policy” just in case Trump somehow achieved election, becomes more clear this past weekend as the Inspector General of the Justice Department, Michael Horowitz released his report on the interactions of FBI Director James Comey and then President elect Trump, and beyond, in the first few months of the nascent new Presidency. Contrary to Comey’s comment to Trump that he personally was not under investigation for any suspected collusion with Russian involvement in the election, The IG found Comey’s actions in obtaining, recording, and disseminating memos regarding his interactions with Trump squarely put Trump at the center of an ongoing investigation designed to entrap him, and lay the seeds for criminal inditement or impeachment. James Comey wasn’t attempting to serve the new president. He was attempting to get rid of him.

As Andy McCarthy, a former prosecutor who has intensely followed the process since the beginning , states, it is clear now that the fix was in, and Obama Administration officials were working to “short circuit ” the Trump Presidency. Unlike Obama’s errant misquote, this would be really, really bad if true, and as the wheels come off the Trump collusion narrative, it is looking more and more true. We may be looking at one of the worst scandals in the history of America democracy – the “insurance policy” designed to achieve a coup.

The first deep dive by the IG towards malfeasance focuses upon a Director of the once sacrosanct Federal Bureau of Investigation, James Comey. Comey, a politico director with an extreme level of self satisfied behavior, first worked his magic to bury a devastating security breach that involved Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the destruction of thousands of secure government emails that were likely exposed through her malfeasance to hostile foreign powers. Having determined on his own to function as prosecutor and jury (likely with guidance from his superiors), he pre-emptively determined to find her untoward actions to be below the threshold requiring prosecution. Now comes the IG’s ire for Comey’s deliberate effort to somehow link a Presidential candidate to a Russian spy network that had managed to inject through a former British spy, a dossier of scurrilous stories, paid for by Trump’s opponent Clinton in their effort to obtain “opposition research”, then pan it off as fact with the rest of the Obama national security apparatus through three grand juries of the FISA court, allowing phone taps and other counter intelligence actions against of Trump, and drive an investigation that would lead to a special prosecutor who spent more than two years hampering and pressuring the new President attempting to get him to crack. Turns out the ‘scandal free’ administration may have attempted the ultimate scandal, a coup. Comey was actively participating as the tip of the spear.

The sad fact is that the President’s pugnacious nature and looseness with the language of facts played directing into the hands of coup leaders and their full blown accomplices, the elite media. For two years, the media pounded Trump like a piñata, buying in to the fallacious narrative, and brutally driving it every day in their own obscene effort to get rid of Trump.

https://youtu.be/xwW9RZCEydw

Only a bull dog like Trump could have survived the onslaught. The larger question is whether our constitutional democracy can survive the onslaught to our bedrock principles of a free, unencumbered, disinterested press and civil service that believes in democratic institutions and rule of law. The last several decades, and particularly the last several years show the narrative wants to demolish our precious, hard won constitutional protections against such onslaughts.

Well, maybe as Dr. King said, or more correctly as Dr. King paraphrased what Minister Parker said, the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice. Hopefully as more light falls on the subject of this treacherous episode in our nation’s story, the bend for all the willing culprits, will be towards real justice. We will see what our decaying institutions do with all the sunshine, as the culprits begin to scatter.

The Special Relationship

Boris Johnson ascends to No. 10 Downing St . attrib. news.sky.com

The ever forward arc of ‘progress’ assumed by globalist elites was shaken cataclysmically by the unexpected earthquake win of outsider Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States in November, 2016. But the real tremblers began earlier that year across the pond in Britain on June 23, 2016 when the British population stunned all experts by coming out in droves to defend sovereignty with a vote to leave the European Union. As has happened on multiple occasions, the influence of the Mother country on the United States, and vice versa was evidenced in full flower. The casual assumption by elites in both countries that, the concept of ‘citizen’ had evolved irreversibly beyond the national boundaries and unique formative events that had formed the world’s two oldest continuing representative democracies, was abruptly derailed.

Never say die, never give in, when you are sure that you are right, though, is a foundational tenet of the liberal elite. The attacks, delays, and obfuscations began almost immediately in both countries. In the U.S., a cadre of deep state elites put into motion a crippling and potentially death dealing plan to dismantle the Trump Administration at birth, with the Russian Collusion hysteria and orchestrated ‘investigation’. The two year non-stop attack from both internal government coordinators and the media obsessed with removing the blot of Trumpism from their determined narrative as to the acceptable direction of the country, paralyzed most initiatives and required Trump to swing from the heels in pugilist fashion, at times his own worst enemy. In Britain a faux march towards Brexit with the Article 50 vote in the House of Commons covered a leadership elite impassioned to stall and obstruct any development of an agreement with the European Union that would actually significantly change Britain’s relationship. The goal was, with each passing month, a “do over” that would ignore the clear will of the British populous with the first plebiscite, and manipulate a second vote to overturn the first, locking Great Britain permanently in the grip of the continental overlords of the European Union. When you are defending the ever forward arc of progress, you can’t let democratic minions who think they want to control their own future stand in your way.

The fascinating lesson, however, learned over and over is the stubborn strength of the mechanisms of democracy set up hundreds of years ago in both countries, resistant to the manipulations of false and misleading narratives. The edifice of the Trump Collusion narrative has crumbled into dissolution against facts and overreach, exposing the righteous attack as closer to the ‘witch-hunt’ defined by the President. The final blow may have come when the Chief Investigator Mueller, held up as indomitable and impartial, revealed finally in Congressional hearings designed to devastate Trump, that he barely comprehended what had been the details or the legal foundations of his own investigation. In Britain, the multiple delays of the multiple deadlines for leaving came up against the full fury of the British electorate when they voted overwhelmingly for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in European Parliament elections, crushing the establishment parties, in a victory by a party that had not even existed six weeks prior to the vote.

The most recent indication that the tumult between the global elites and the contrarian people they rule was not going away, was the internal election of Boris Johnson displacing Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party and ascension to the Prime Ministership of the House of Commons. A leaver from the start, Johnson has been painted as a clownish, lightweight figure by the establishment, much along the lines of his American counterpart, Donald Trump. Johnson started his premiership with his own version of “draining the swamp”, removing all semblance of Theresa May’s bumbling EU appeasement cabinet and replacing them with hardline leavers. He set a standard for leaving on October 31st, with or without an agreement with the EU, and pledged firmly no more moving of the line in the sand.

The strange result is, once again, a historical coalescence of the special influences and relationships between Great Britain and the United States that defies the demands of others to abrogate the relationship once and for all. One thinks back to the last time such a convocation led to immense progress, the quirky relationship of a bookish middle class chemist and an American actor, who found themselves uncommonly bound on common ideology and purpose.

President Reagan and Prime Minister Thatcher attrib. national review.com

The possibilities of a restoration of a special relationship between Johnson and Trump along the lines of Thatcher and Reagan can seem a stretch when the labile personalities and elastic ideological convictions of the current duo seem impossible to pin down. Their ‘can do’ spirit’ and the basis of what they believe regarding the earned greatness of achievement of their respective countries however shine brightly against any perceived lack of intellectualized ideological underpinning. The two men are part of a crusade to reverse the tide of decay that permeates western civilized culture, and have the strange current convergence of an aligned electorate in both countries that want the great experiment of individual freedom, to go on, just a bit longer.

Collusion Delusion

 

On November 9th, 2016. the citizens of United States of America awoke to the uncomfortable reality that a brazen, brash real estate mogul from New York managed one of the most unlikely and inconceivable victories in the history of American politics — and it wasn’t even that close.  To the amazement of most voters, Donald Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton by convincing a thin sliver of the upper Midwest to abandon their traditional voting pattern and take a chance on a complete novice  over the supposed ‘most prepared’ candidate in history.  The great majority of the public had a wary, wait and see attitude about the unknown quantity that was Donald Trump.  An elite cadre, including, it appears, the outgoing administration, had a much more targeted impression in mind.  From almost the first day after the election, whispers of “foreign influence” in the election began and the suggestion was the unreal outcome may have tainted.  The result was a rapidly progressive narrative that the win was dirty, and had been achieved by means beyond the ballot box.  The idea that a clownish Trump with no political experience could have convinced a nation on his own that the country’s direction of the last twenty-five years, and particularly the last eight, needed a shocking redirection, was too much for the elite establishment.  There had to be another, far more nefarious answer — collusion with the arch enemy Putin.

So began the public assault on the Trump Presidency from his first day in office.  The private assault began much earlier it turns out.  Mechanisms to assure that in the unlikely scenario of a Trump victory the Trump presidency would be cornered and starved for oxygen day one were put in place.  The assumption likely was that the excruciating pressure would cause the novice to explode and flame out by taking some extra-constitutional action that would allow for a legal overturning of the electoral outcome through an impeachment process.  The number of people that coordinated to position the embryonic Trump administration for demolition was impressive and may not yet be fully exposed. 

The key to the process would be Trump’s incendiary personality, because everyone intimate to the assault had to know the evidence that would be used was at most flimsy, and to a large part concocted and paid for by the very political campaign Trump had managed to defeat.  No matter, because such day to day pressure upon such a thin skinned individual would no doubt expose other vulnerabilities and make the original far fetched connections immaterial.  The early indications must have enhanced the confidence of the conspirators.  The appointment of a special prosecutor by Trump’s own Justice Department, the firing of the FBI Director, the enthusiastic assumption of the narrative by the mainstream media.  Perhaps the fatal conceit was the judgment of the character of the President himself, the thin skin proving to be downright reptilian, and the bombastic comebacks covering a relatively nuanced and careful avoidance of impulsive actions by the reputed King of Impulse.

Two years, millions of dollars, and to the chagrin and horror of the elites, the Scorpion King stands above the chaos.  Now, the questions may begin to swirl as to whether Trump has simply survived a legal investigation, or possibly was the victim of one of the more dark political operations in the history of the constitutional republic.  Did the previous administration determine to scuttle the next President?  Was the opposition campaign involved? Is a fantastical image of a Deep State immune to the decisions of the electorate and determined to function athwart the democracy a reality?

Watergate will always be held up as the most significant attack on the constitutional republic, but was in essence, the clumsy and illiberal efforts of a politician to wall himself off from being associated with his contributions to the dirty pool of American politics.  This political scandal, that may have been a direct attempt to take down an American President by his own executive branch, may end up much closer to shaking the foundations of American government, if all the scabs are fully exposed.  Will the national press that relished the opportunity to expose the first scandal determine, as the facts come out regarding who really were the colluding collaborators,  engage to reveal, or bury, the second?

Whatever you may think of Trump, and God knows I’ve thought it all, he may, unbelievably, prove to be on the right side of history.  His unparalleled ability to withstand and overcome those that sought to overturn a national electoral decision, may have made this most unlikely of constitutional patriots,  the indispensable person for our troubled times.

 

 

New World Disorder

Massive Protests in Caracas, Venezuela
              AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos

Don’t look now, but there are some very unhappy people with the state of the social revolution in Venezuela.  As Ramparts has reported before, the Venezuelan revolution of late has been more fueled by hunger than the socialist philosophic concept of equality of outcome, though it is a foregone conclusion that, at this time, everyone is equally hungry.  Normally two to three million people spilling out into the street for something other than an international sport victory is not a promising sign for a country’s ensconced leadership, but El Presidente Maduro and his ruling thugs are a particularly hardy and resistant bunch.  There remains something unique about socialist dictators, in that they seem immune to the typical pressures that would normally cause a more democratically elected leadership to think the time to resign was imminent.  The means of daily survival are critical ingredients for control – the more scarce the ingredients, the more dependence of the population on the rapidly diminishing resource.  The secondary lever for all such socialist autocracies is control of the military, with troops well fed and troop leaders well pensioned.  For autocrats like Maduro, the twin images of omniscience and omnipotence must always be present to maintain the veneer of confident immunity to “risks” to the glorious revolution. Maduro must present the synthesis of the Man of the People and the Man of Steel.  Kevin Williamson of NRO may have devised the best description ever written of inevitable transformation of these would Stalins:

In most cases, the revolution begins with a peasant prelude and reaches its crescendo with some variation on the theme of Napoleon; socialist revolutions in particular have a peculiar habit of beginning with a man in a work shirt and ending up with a man dressed like Cap’n Crunch. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro does look a sight in his beauty-pageant sash and Mr. T-worthy gold chains.

Inevitably as the peoples’ hunger grows and their desire for spectacle and fear for authority diminishes, the sashes and gold chains, the generalissimo outfits, no longer have their projected power.  Venezuela, the South American country most closely aligned with concept of societal success prior to 1995, with a deeply educated  and prosperous middle class,  in twenty short years under the socialist schemers of Chavez and his pale imitation Maduro, has been plunged into the abyss of total breakdown.  The only functioning market is the black one, and the most legitimate vote undertaken by Venezuelans in the last five years has been the vote of three million citizens with their feet as they left the country hoping to salvage their tattered lives, once supposedly liberated by socialist visions, now intensely focused on simple survival.

Maduro has walked his tightrope with tenacity, but cracks are widening and the chance for real violence, and potentially  Ceausescu style violent overthrow grows.  The growing crisis has many risks beyond the ruling Venezuelan Politburo, and the countries are finally belatedly  attempting to do the right thing.  The United States this week pulled diplomatic recognition from Maduro’s ruling clique and recognized instead the President of the National Assembly, Juan Guiado.  Guiado himself is somewhat of a stand-in for the Maduro opponent, Leopoldo Lopez, under house arrest since opposing Maduro in 2014.  The second important step the US took was offering Maduro safe passage out of the country.  Dictators always have to weigh the continuing ability to horde assets from the country they lead, while risking the grotesque amounts they have already shepherded out of the country into safe havens. Trying to hold onto both of course risks ending up with neither, and falling into the hands of a very, very angry mob.

As the street protests grow in intensity, so does the dimwittedness of the leftist elites in the United States, who cling to the notion that this once more horrendous example of the epic failure of the socialist vision to improve anything for anybody, is evidence of the need to take another try and get it right.  Socialist utopian visions cling to the notion that the missing ingredient is the vision minus the corruption, only to be blind to the obvious that it is the vision itself that is corrupted.  For the idealistic mental snowdrifts that are newly elected US Representatives  Alexandra Ocasio- Cortez and Ilhan Omar, and other examples of the young American generation’s citadels of lighter than air intellect, the United States remains chief corrupter by its success with a capitalist model, and desperately needs an enforced cleansing, towards the world of Venezuela.  The more cynical older generation representatives of the socialist dream like Bernie Sanders and the Hollywood elite, look instead for a more staid revolution, that would preserve their ability to get theirs, but secure the redistribution of wealth and eliminate individual incentive from, as Williamson so craftily describes in his NRO article , as the “Kulaks” .

We will need to watch carefully over the next weeks as the usual snakes in the grass position themselves to take political advantage of Venezuela’ desperate straits.   For the long suffering people of Venezuela, hopefully there is a way out of the mess without further catastrophe and violence,  that gets them their freedom back.

In dark times,  one always looks for the Angel in the Whirlwind.

 

May Wreckxits Brexit


An original 1951 economic compact developing a proposed improved internal post war trade zone between the former allies France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, and their erstwhile enemies, Italy and West Germany, was seized by idealists and over the decades grew into something altogether more imposing.  By 1993, the dream of a continental free market was realized in the Treaty of Maastricht, forming  the birth of a democracy inspired concept of a shared European destiny and citizenry, the European Union, and now  comprises 28 member states and over 500 million people.  The United Kingdom, twice thrown into vicious continental wars, was a wary but foundational participant in the European experiment.  Conceived as a means of economic linkage that would effectively bind the European nations in such a fashion that the horrendous rivalries that caused a previous century and a half of bloody conflict would have no oxygen for existence, the European Union has instead metastasized progressively into a somewhat autocratic political bureaucracy answerable to no one.  The British, never comfortable with the most identifiable element of loss of sovereignty, the Euro currency, chafed at the other elements of loss of control of decisions they feel befitted a free people.

On June 23, 2016, the people of the United Kingdom shocked the world.  A referendum that asked the basic question of modern times only a democracy could risk answering – should a modern society maintain a cozy, passive, somewhat indentured but secured life , or risk an uncertain but independent self determined future  – was resoundingly answered in the direction of freedom.   Brexit, the act of leaving the political and economic responsibilities associated with being a signee of the Treaty of the European Union, was voted  in the affirmative by over 52% of the United Kingdom.  The stunning outcome has had enormous reverberations through the British political establishment ever since.  Prime Minister Cameron, who campaigned on the need for Britain to Remain, held an untenable position with the loss and resigned.  The foremost Leave supporters in the cabinet, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, ended up shooting each other in the proverbial foot, and were out-organized and outgunned by Theresa May.   May, every bit the Remainer as was most of the British Cabinet and elites, implied that with her new position as leader of the elected representatives of the United Kingdom, she had had an epiphany with the vote, and emoted that “Brexit means Brexit”.

On March 29, 2017, Article 50 of the European Union Treaty was evoked, and the two year negotiating period to formally exit the union was initiated.    A deadline of March 29, 2019 was felt more than enough time to establish the rules of a divorce.     

If you had bet, however,  upon an organized enlightened process from the elected British government representing the interests of the British people who voted so strongly for independence, you have lost badly.  Prime Minister May has shown the political dexterity of a wildebeest and the stubborn grip of a python on progressively weaker negotiated stances.    First, wildly overestimating her personal connection with the people, a flash election in 2017 meant to extend her significant House of Commons majority instead ended with a humiliating Conservative Party retrenchment.  The radical Labor Party markedly strengthened its hand , and May was forced into a political marriage with a minority  Northern Ireland Unionist Party, just to maintain her position as Prime Minister.  Misreading the loss, May lurched into a Remainer Lite philosophy, alienating the passionate Leave base of her own party, and seeing a never ending cascade of Cabinet Ministers resigning in disgust over the inability to formulate any semblance of an aggressive, independence driven negotiation with the European Union bureaucracy.  Last week, May, after affirming in speeches time and time again, a series of “red lines” an independent Britain could not abide in any post Brexit relationship,  produced her long awaited Magnum Opus agreement for a potential House of Commons vote-which proved to be laced with red line surrenders, leading to a whole new group of resignations.

With less than four months to go to the Brexit conclusion date of March 29th, 2019, the apparent best agreement May could negotiate positions Great Britain to maintain subservience to the EU Courts, trade restrictions as required by the EU Custom Union, dependence upon EU immigration rules, billions in payments to the EU – and no residual say in EU parliament where the rules are formed.  A Brexit much worse than no Brexit.   If you think that’s the sound of independence and self determination, you are reading the wrong blog.

Needless to say, as with most modern governments, the elected elite have always assumed that the people who elect them, need to be led, not represented.   Prime Minister May and the phalanx of government bureaucrats that had no intention to ever separate from their fellow continental bureaucrats,  always hoped for a strategy of delay until the populist’s  passion to leave would wane, and the better minds would prevail.  Now, she is attempting to look stalwart, clinging with a two fisted death grip on a loser, knowing that the impending March date arriving without any kind of agreement , looks like a disastrous cliff to most.  

Great leaders in history have frequently been required to defend unpopular positions, but the great ones have had an innate sense of the people’s will.  Theresa May has managed to have an almost surreal genetic absence of instinct for historical trajectory, and could find herself without a political friend in the world.  The European Union negotiators have relied on her lack of commitment to Brexit, the Labor Party is standing by to watch her flop, the Conservatives realize the people will reject them for having bungled completely the Brexit process, her supporters will look for a way back in to the EU, and May will get to join the commanding political heights achieved by only the most profoundly ineffectual.

The sad commentary is that democracies have really forgotten how to do the tough things, the things that rely on a sense of confidence and destiny inspired by their past contributors.  When you believe in yourself and the unique qualities that led to past success, to your liberties and free will, the future does not hold a right path or a wrong path, only your own path.  Theresa May like all modernist politicians has a fear of failing, and will therefore never look to succeed. 

Great Britain, in voting for Brexit, was asking for a return to the self determination and freedom that had defined its history, and will find this particular group of British leaders wanting nothing of the sort.  Winston Churchill once famously stated about the British people , “Give us the tools, and we will finish the job”.  Soon we will see if the country has enough gumption to take back the rudder, stabilize the ship of state at this critical time ,  and find the people who can get the job done.


The Election Cometh…

November 6th, 2018 brings that time honored tradition in the United States – the biennial national election day.  Ramparts has had its own election tradition – of generally doing a poor job of predicting results – maybe just a little too much leaning on hoped for outcomes, and not enough objective recognition of the fickle nature of the American electorate.  This is a country that uniformly blames the side they just elected, and looks to throw the bums out.  Ramparts doesn’t show  prejudice as a  wrong headed prognosticator – picking Romney over Obama, Clinton over Trump, and missing the 2010 backlash entirely.  Then again, significantly more qualified observers and pollsters managed to blow those calls as well, particularly the herculean Trump upset.  The 2018 battle has been at various times promoted as a blue wave,  a disastrous Senate map for Democrats full of Trump states, and High Noon for the Resistance.  The so called off year election, where absent a  Presidential candidate at the head of the ticket, has in the past been assumed to focus more on local factors. The ubiquitous nature of social media and reams of money aligned with the ever increasing polarization of views has, however,  made even local dog catcher elections ‘pivotal’.  No, really. Pivotal.   Pandering, buying influence and votes, denigrating an opponent, describing an opposition triumph as Armageddon for the country – well, that’s what we would call the American Way.  And don’t you know , millions are going to go to that voting booth and proudly do their part, to celebrate the process one more time. I will be one of them.

If there is no earthshaking prediction based on inside information I am able to offer to either assure you or appall you based on the outcome, at least a few  observations are in order.

The House of Representatives – A Lighter Shade of Blue:      The 2010 election was epical for Republicans.  Feasting off  disillusionment with the creaky health care shenanigans of the Obama administration, a massive wave of contrarians were voted to both state house legislatures and governorships, the effects of which are still mightily felt today.  Put in position to interpret the 2010 Census, these legislatures re-configured the electoral map and republicans have held a natural advantage at both the state and national legislature level since.  Recognizing the impenetrable coalitions of urban suburbs and inner city democratic machines that keep the voting loyalty of even the dear departed, republican legislatures let the cities have their wins, and carved out their own districts of winnable voters.  this has led to an 8 year dynasty of a republican led house, and has infuriated democrats who see the people’s house as theirs by eminent domain.  A flurry of lawsuits by democrats to overturn the districting maps has begun to bite, mostly prominently in Pennsylvania, where the state’s liberal Supreme Court overturned the map and likely overturned 5 republican districts into the democrat column.  This is a terrific head start in a world where a switch of 24 seats would lead to a Democrat majority and a return to a Pelosi run circus.  The traditional trend of the next election after a Presidential election is for the President’s party to lose significant seats in Congress – in keeping with the American tradition of never give carte blanche to any party.   The Trump phenomena however is the most unpollable electorate of modern political polling and all bets are off picking the outcome.  A democrat win of the House means Speaker Pelosi and Committee Chairmen Nadler, Waters, and Clyburn.  Let the circus commence!  True, juicy justice in outcome would be a Democrat pick up of 22 seats, so close to victory, yet  frustratingly just short of power, pulling the hypocrisy wool off everyone’s eyes for good, as the self destructive liberal wing would devourer what little carcass of what was left of any discerning progressives that still believed in their country,  More likely? A painful two years of nonstop Trump badgering, bashing and hectoring if they win, and two years of nothing ever getting done.

The Senate – Where has All The Money Gone?:    Since the 17th Amendment to the Constitution was passed in 1913, the election of Senators have been by the direct vote of the people.  Given that each state staggers its Senate elections, the Senate races tend to have very intense individual focus on the candidates, and as such, have elevated the job to national prominence and influence.  And we are talking serious influence.  Take for instance the Texas Senate race between Ted Cruz the incumbent Senator and his challenger Beto O’Rourke.  Apparently the job of a Senator is so influential that over 130 million dollars ( that’s 130 million!) will have been spent in the effort to engage in the race.  The outside money pouring in doesn’t care about local issues; it cares about converting that money into power on the national stage.  There are many other examples of similarly egregious expenditures for what is supposed to be a contest of ideas  rather than influence peddling, but the mass of money spent has made any developed discussion of ideas an archaic concept.  Blank slates like Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin will win, not because she brings any of her own talent to the solving of the nation’s problems, but because the money will allow the destruction of her opponent as any kind of recognizable alternative.  Millions of dollars are standing behind Baldwin because she is a willing shill for other people’s ideas.  The fall in intellect from Russ Feingold to Tammy Baldwin is steep indeed.

The Trump rallies , with his ever present ability to pull massive, enthusiastic crowds suggest that the President will likely have real influence in the Trump carried states of 2016.  Every election there is a race or two from each party that presents as a total surprise.  I suspect the pattern will continue with a prominent Republican and a prominent Democrat going down to defeat,  but the Trumpian gravity is likely I think to pull 3 or 4 uphill candidates into a position to win.  Likely states?  Indiana and North Dakota – but the tally could easily include Florida, Missouri, and Montana.  54-55 Republican Senators I think is not out of the question.  If the House flips, the Senate will need every one the 54 to somehow keep the country on track.

As soon as the results are tallied on November7th, the process of reassessing the power players will begin, and with it, the landscape of challengers to Trump in 2020.   The unbound economy, the flourishing job market, relative peace, and a returning sense of confidence that is part of our current national landscape would normally be a potent force for staying the course.  America will always remain uncomfortable with such bounty, and look for ways to do penance for success.  A sharp leftward turn in the 2018 election would suggest the country looked at the prospect of America becoming great again, and decided it turned out to be not worthy after all.   A stay the course election, and we may all have to get out our MAGA hats.


Tumult

Jair Bolsanaro has just capped off a most tumultuous month.  Surviving an leftist assassination attempt in September, 2018, the former Brazilian army officer and long time congressman has blown through a primary, then, run off election,  with a crushing defeat of his socialist opponent.   Brazil,  a country that has been dominated by socialist populist rule since its military dictatorship was overcome in the 1980s,  has been drawn to Bolsanaro’s message of a nationalist socially conservative agenda of privatization, gun rights, and law and order.   A surge of support from Brazilians tired of seeing corruption and stilted progress dominate the government of their massive country,  has now catapulted a traditionalist conservative to the very pinnacle of power.

Beginning with the stunning Brexit win in Great Britain in the summer of 2016, followed by the ascendancy of the Trump phenomena in the United States, the world has been rocked from its globalist moorings by election reactions of democracies towards more nationalist overtones.  No continent cohabitant with democratic process has been spared.  A supposedly unified Europe has seen strong elective resistance to trans-national European Union overlords, in Poland, Italy, Hungary, and Austria.  North America has seen nationalists win in Mexico, and most dramatically, the United States.  Now, South America, watching the real time suicide of a once prosperous Venezuela under the boot of disastrous socialist autocracy, has seen its largest country radically swing away from any dalliance with the virus that has strangled the Venezuelan prosperity.

At the turn of the century, there was a brief communal awareness that perhaps the world had, with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 seen the “end of history”, with global coordination of borderless trade positioning governments to remove the concept of borders altogether.   A dominant military superpower in the United States allowed bureaucrats to resist developing national power structures in favor bureaucrats who would reign by regulation rather than martial projection of power.  The need for national exceptionalism was to progressively give way to global universality dominated by an intellectual elite that would bypass the need for borders by eliminating the cultural uniqueness that in their mind supported inequality through border separateness.  Globalist thought saw borders as an anachronism, and therefore, encouraged removal of any impediments to immigration, to further blend the cultural soup into an indistinguishable compote.   A post religion, post language, post inequity world was in sight, where martial energies could be directed toward global dragons such as “climate change” and “redistribution”.   The wrenching effect on individuals of enforced cultural change, derision of time honored traditions, and a feeling that their way of life was wantonly considered an  “acceptable” sacrifice on the altar of a ‘better’ future never entered into globalist calculations.

The first reactionary slap was the fundamentalist violent recoil of radical Islam on 09/11.  Despite the transient collective national response to the attack, the left almost immediately sought to demonize an aggressive national reaction , and sought to invent a rationalization that would seek global bureaucratic “legal” recourse to terrorism, rather than military destruction of terrorists.  Despite the enormous associated risks, global bureaucracies stuck to  the stated goal of unfettered immigration, regardless  of the obvious risk to their citizens  of additionally allowing the virus of radicalism, terrorism, and destruction of rule of law to proceed apace.  With the election of Barrack Obama, the bastion home of the clarion call for sovereignty, limited government, and individual freedoms, the United States, was now positioned to lose its exceptionalism, and be assimilated to the future, like its European forebears themselves.

Historical dissonance once driven too far into an unnatural human posture, inevitably leads to reactionary strains, and we are in one now.  The only consensus that currently exists is that there can be no consensus between a increasingly globalist, social uniformity championed by the left, and a large and growing reactionary pull back toward traditional virtues and competitive national stories.   I can’t see that this division, so intensely demanded by the proponents of each future, will somehow end in comity.  The recent hysterical outrages claimed by the left, and the progressive successes on the right in the ballot box only intensifies the divide.  

Unfortunately, a chasm is developing, and the first violent outbursts and simmering hatreds are beginning to find root.  Violence at the periphery from the disaffected is increasingly finding its way to more and more dramatic expression.  The left has never accepted the idea that the “arc of history towards social justice” could ever be thwarted.  The threat of violence has been the left’s tool for ultimate submission of those who do not see the future the way they do.  The reaction in the not so distant past to the violent tendencies of the over reaching left, has been in past times an equally over reaching right.   We will see if the skill set of such men as Trump and Bolsanaro prove up to the task of ably setting things right, without resorting to pulling as far right as the left has pulled left.  If they are not savvy enough, pressure pot may boil over, and we all might unfortunately end up looking back to this tumultuous time, as the quiet before the storm.


Mob Mentality

When you are so sure you are in the right, that there is no place for the concept of truth, you have arrived at mob rule.  America and its reliance on the two hundred and forty some year old Constitution, and a tradition of rights of the individual and rule of law, teeters at the brink.  In a circus of innuendo and show trial, half the country is willing to throw away the incredibly hard won rights that protect the citizen against the tyranny of the mob, for the prize of a judicial seat on the Supreme Court.

The role of advise and consent that was applied to the Senate by the framers of the Constitution could not have predicted the bastardization of the process that has infected the last forty years.  the Supreme Court was considered the weakest of the three branches, positioned only to make sure that the laws applied by the other two branches respected the limitations of the Constitutional document.  Laws were to be proposed and passed by the people’s representative, the Legislative Branch, and executed by the Executive Branch.  The Court was to secure that laws carried the weight of their intent, and the limitations of their scope as referenced in the Constitution, not formulate the laws themselves.

Somewhere, this went terribly wrong, when the Supreme Court determined to define a law’s intent rather than its constitutionality.  The Democrat Party, having failed through election to achieve societal transformation rapidly enough to secure its permanent position of power, looked to the court as the extra legal way of securing the transformation without being answerable to the voters,

Of all the torrents of societal tumult that led to the wholly unexpected triumph of the renegade candidate Trump to the Presidency, the balance of the Supreme Court was likely the overriding decision maker for the discerning voter.  Trump promised to resist the transformers, and secure textualists to the bench, that would restore the court to its appropriate place in the governance of the country.  When the impossible happened and Trump won, the initial intent was to wound Trump so severely that he would be distracted from his court conversion with the overriding task of defending himself against the onslaught.   It turns out Trump has thus far proved immune to the crushing attacks, and the internal deep state efforts to create subtrifuge have become to crumble.  Gorsuch was the Scalia seat, so the game of destruction was not likely to succeed, but Anthony Kennedy has been the “swing” vote that had allowed the court to maintain undue influence on extra-constitutional processes.  The wound of losing the swing vote was too much to bear, and the politics of destruction were advanced to all out war.  Avoiding the hundreds of hours of testimony and attestations, the party waited until the clock shortened suffienctly to assure the trap was set correctly, than supported through the arm of the accomplice media, pressured the deliberation into an effective show trial.  An accusation without collaboration is the ultimate weapon, as one must deny the accuser rather than the unsupported accusation.

The Soviet show trials of the 1930s and the Red Guard public humiliations of the 1960s did not make any assumptions of fact or truth – none were required.  The process simply put the indiviual on trial for standing in the way of the mob’s justice, and the decisions were preordained.

Brian Kavanaugh knew his judicial philosophy represented a threat to the radicals that had determined as President Obama had stated, to literally transform the nation regardless of the nation’s desire to be so transformed.  He  could not have recognized, however,  that the simple reality of having grown up male in the 1980s would be a dagger to the heart of a fair and respectful review.

Its not clear that Kavanaugh will survive the attacks politically and achieve the seat on the court that he is overly qualified for.  Regardless of outcome, he has been wounded permanently by the new Red Guard that are willing  destroy the country before they give up the fight to resist those that would restrict their power.

Sad to say, the people likely felt the same way in 1860.  Let’s hope we find some way out of the vortex.