An original 1951 economic compact developing a proposed improved internal post war trade zone between the former allies France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, and their erstwhile enemies, Italy and West Germany, was seized by idealists and over the decades grew into something altogether more imposing. By 1993, the dream of a continental free market was realized in the Treaty of Maastricht, forming the birth of a democracy inspired concept of a shared European destiny and citizenry, the European Union, and now comprises 28 member states and over 500 million people. The United Kingdom, twice thrown into vicious continental wars, was a wary but foundational participant in the European experiment. Conceived as a means of economic linkage that would effectively bind the European nations in such a fashion that the horrendous rivalries that caused a previous century and a half of bloody conflict would have no oxygen for existence, the European Union has instead metastasized progressively into a somewhat autocratic political bureaucracy answerable to no one. The British, never comfortable with the most identifiable element of loss of sovereignty, the Euro currency, chafed at the other elements of loss of control of decisions they feel befitted a free people.
On June 23, 2016, the people of the United Kingdom shocked the world. A referendum that asked the basic question of modern times only a democracy could risk answering – should a modern society maintain a cozy, passive, somewhat indentured but secured life , or risk an uncertain but independent self determined future – was resoundingly answered in the direction of freedom. Brexit, the act of leaving the political and economic responsibilities associated with being a signee of the Treaty of the European Union, was voted in the affirmative by over 52% of the United Kingdom. The stunning outcome has had enormous reverberations through the British political establishment ever since. Prime Minister Cameron, who campaigned on the need for Britain to Remain, held an untenable position with the loss and resigned. The foremost Leave supporters in the cabinet, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, ended up shooting each other in the proverbial foot, and were out-organized and outgunned by Theresa May. May, every bit the Remainer as was most of the British Cabinet and elites, implied that with her new position as leader of the elected representatives of the United Kingdom, she had had an epiphany with the vote, and emoted that “Brexit means Brexit”.
On March 29, 2017, Article 50 of the European Union Treaty was evoked, and the two year negotiating period to formally exit the union was initiated. A deadline of March 29, 2019 was felt more than enough time to establish the rules of a divorce.
If you had bet, however, upon an organized enlightened process from the elected British government representing the interests of the British people who voted so strongly for independence, you have lost badly. Prime Minister May has shown the political dexterity of a wildebeest and the stubborn grip of a python on progressively weaker negotiated stances. First, wildly overestimating her personal connection with the people, a flash election in 2017 meant to extend her significant House of Commons majority instead ended with a humiliating Conservative Party retrenchment. The radical Labor Party markedly strengthened its hand , and May was forced into a political marriage with a minority Northern Ireland Unionist Party, just to maintain her position as Prime Minister. Misreading the loss, May lurched into a Remainer Lite philosophy, alienating the passionate Leave base of her own party, and seeing a never ending cascade of Cabinet Ministers resigning in disgust over the inability to formulate any semblance of an aggressive, independence driven negotiation with the European Union bureaucracy. Last week, May, after affirming in speeches time and time again, a series of “red lines” an independent Britain could not abide in any post Brexit relationship, produced her long awaited Magnum Opus agreement for a potential House of Commons vote-which proved to be laced with red line surrenders, leading to a whole new group of resignations.
With less than four months to go to the Brexit conclusion date of March 29th, 2019, the apparent best agreement May could negotiate positions Great Britain to maintain subservience to the EU Courts, trade restrictions as required by the EU Custom Union, dependence upon EU immigration rules, billions in payments to the EU – and no residual say in EU parliament where the rules are formed. A Brexit much worse than no Brexit. If you think that’s the sound of independence and self determination, you are reading the wrong blog.
Needless to say, as with most modern governments, the elected elite have always assumed that the people who elect them, need to be led, not represented. Prime Minister May and the phalanx of government bureaucrats that had no intention to ever separate from their fellow continental bureaucrats, always hoped for a strategy of delay until the populist’s passion to leave would wane, and the better minds would prevail. Now, she is attempting to look stalwart, clinging with a two fisted death grip on a loser, knowing that the impending March date arriving without any kind of agreement , looks like a disastrous cliff to most.
Great leaders in history have frequently been required to defend unpopular positions, but the great ones have had an innate sense of the people’s will. Theresa May has managed to have an almost surreal genetic absence of instinct for historical trajectory, and could find herself without a political friend in the world. The European Union negotiators have relied on her lack of commitment to Brexit, the Labor Party is standing by to watch her flop, the Conservatives realize the people will reject them for having bungled completely the Brexit process, her supporters will look for a way back in to the EU, and May will get to join the commanding political heights achieved by only the most profoundly ineffectual.
The sad commentary is that democracies have really forgotten how to do the tough things, the things that rely on a sense of confidence and destiny inspired by their past contributors. When you believe in yourself and the unique qualities that led to past success, to your liberties and free will, the future does not hold a right path or a wrong path, only your own path. Theresa May like all modernist politicians has a fear of failing, and will therefore never look to succeed.
Great Britain, in voting for Brexit, was asking for a return to the self determination and freedom that had defined its history, and will find this particular group of British leaders wanting nothing of the sort. Winston Churchill once famously stated about the British people , “Give us the tools, and we will finish the job”. Soon we will see if the country has enough gumption to take back the rudder, stabilize the ship of state at this critical time , and find the people who can get the job done.